CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-07-25T18:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-07-25T18:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40239/-1
CME Note: Relatively fast, narrow CME seen to the southeast only in STEREO A COR2A starting around 2025-07-25T18:23Z and not seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES19 CCOR-1, likely associated with a minor eruption northwest of Active Region 4154 near S09E25; the signature is seen a brightening loop with larger overarching dimming signature in SDO AIA 193, locally separating magnetic field lines in SDO AIA 171, 131, and 304, and in GOES SUVI 284, an omnidirectional, cone-shaped EUV wave emanating from the parent source. The CME is seen quickly in three frames of STEREO A COR2A before rapidly becoming more diffuse and immeasurable before exiting the coronagraph field of view. M2M simulation represents an lower confidence measurement with just one spacecraft's coronagraph images (STEREO A), using just three available frames and knowledge of the source location using EUV imagery. | Arrival signature: Signature at ACE at L1 characterized by a gradual increase in B-total from 5.00nT to 7.67nT, some minor rotation in B-field components, and a simultaneous increase in speed from about 370 km/s to 410 km/s. No notable reaction in solar wind density and temperature data.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-28T22:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-29T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 69.88 hour(s)
Difference: -1.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-07-26T01:05Z
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